Britain More Prosperous "IN"
We are economists who care about Britain and its future. We feel compelled to speak out on the risks of Leaving and opportunities from Remaining in the EU.
12 Nobel Laureates and over 175 UK based economists have signed this statement.
If Britain votes to Leave we believe that:
- A recession causing job losses will become significantly more likely due to the shock and uncertainty of Brexit. With interest rates near zero and debt still high, the Bank of England and Government would have limited ability to prevent such a recession.
- A drop in the pound and increased tariffs on imports will cause the costs of everyday goods to go up increasing inflation.
- Investment in the UK will drop harming innovation and future job growth.
- These impacts will fall most heavily on households with middle and low incomes.
- Less growth means less government revenue which means higher taxes and less to spend on services like the NHS.
Leave will say these points are 'Project Fear'. We say they are 'Project Reality'. The Leave campaign's economics are built on dangerous fantasies. Leave say we will grow by unilaterally dropping our tariffs, but this would give up all of our negotiating power allowing other countries to raise tariffs and decimate our exporters. Leave also claim we will grow by freeing Britain from EU regulations. But most EU regulations for protecting workers, ensuring food safety, product safety, and a clean environment, would still be required to trade with the EU or US, and we'd want many of them for domestic reasons.
Leave have also misled the public on EU immigration. The UK unemployment rate today is 5.1%, significantly less than it was before EU enlargement - EU immigration hasn't taken jobs. In fact many industries from manufacturing to restaurants, hotels, and agriculture would suffer labour shortages without legal EU workers. And EU immigrants pay billions more in taxes than they claim in benefits and so are a net contributor to the Treasury. Finally, countries outside the EU such as Norway, Switzerland, and Australia have higher net migration relative to their populations than the UK.
We are not alone in our views. Credible, independent institutions like the IMF, OECD, Bank of England, Institute for Fiscal Studies, and London School of Economics have provided similar warnings. An Ipsos/MORI poll showed that 9 in 10 professional economists think Brexit would hurt the economy.
The EU is facing major challenges and in need of reform. Some of us have been significant critics of the EU. But Britain is far better off “in” leading that reform than “out” and isolated. Modern 21st century economies thrive on connections, trade, and exchanges between people and ideas. Britain has historically been an open, trading nation, deeply connected to its closest neighbours in Europe. By voting Remain on 23 June you will be voting for a more prosperous, more secure Britain.
Respectfully,
Professor, Nobel Laureate | George Akerlof | Georgetown University and University of California, Berkeley |
Professor, Nobel Laureate | Kenneth Arrow | Stanford University |
Professor Sir, Nobel Laureate | Angus Deaton | Princeton Universiy |
Professor, Nobel Laureate | Peter Diamond | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
Professor, Nobel Laureate | Robert F. Engle III | New York University |
Professor, Nobel Laureate | James Heckman | University of Chicago |
Professor, Nobel Laureate | Eric Maskin | Harvard University |
Professor, Nobel Laureate | Daniel McFadden | University of Southern California and University of California, Berkeley |
Professor Emeritus Sir, Nobel Laureate | James Mirrlees | University of Cambridge |
Professor Sir, Nobel Laureate | Christopher A. Pissarides | London School of Economics |
Professor Emeritus, Nobel Laureate | Robert Solow | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
Professor, Nobel Laureate | Joseph Stiglitz | Columbia University |
Professor Lord, President of the British Academy | Nicholas Stern | London School of Economics |
Professor Lord | Richard Layard | London School of Economics |
Lord | Gus O'Donnell | Former Cabinet Secretary |
Professor Sir | Anthony Atkinson | London School of Economics and University of Oxford |
Professor Sir | Richard Blundell | University College London and Institute for Fiscal Studies |
Professor Sir | David Hendry | University of Oxford |
Professor Sir | John Hills | London School of Economics |
Professor Sir | Richard Jolly | University of Sussex |
Professor, CBE | David Blanchflower | Former member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee |
Professor, CBE | Charles Goodhart | London School of Economics |
Professor, CBE | Anthony Venables | University of Oxford |
Professor, OBE | Diane Coyle | University of Manchester |
Professor and Pro Vice Chancellor | Nigel Healey | Nottingham Trent University |
Professor and Deputy Pro Vice Chancellor | Stephen Hall | University of Leicester |
Professor and Head of School of Economics | Simon Clark | University of Edinburgh |
Professor, Director | John Van Reenen | Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics |
Executive Director | Eric Beinhocker | Institute for New Economic Thinking, University of Oxford |
Professor | Robert Ackrill | Nottingham Trent University |
Professor | Ali Al-Nowaihi | University of Leicester |
Professor | Guido Ascari | University of Oxford |
Professor | Roger Backhouse | University of Birmingham |
Professor | Oriana Bandiera | LSE |
Professor Emeritus | Ray Barrell | Brunel University London |
Professor | Timothy Besley | London School of Economics |
Professor | Arnab Bhattacharjee | Heriot-Watt University |
Professor | Holger Breinlich | University of Nottingham |
Professor | Robin Burgess | London School of Economics |
Professor | Simon Burgess | University of Bristol |
Professor | Nauro Campos | Brunel University London |
Professor | Wendy Carlin | University College London |
Professor | Mark Casson | University of Reading |
Professor | Alec Chrystal | Cass Business School |
Professor | David Cobham | Heriot-Watt University |
Professor | Matt Cole | University of Birmingham |
Professor | Tatiana Damjanovic | Durham University |
Professor | Gianni De Fraja | University of Nottingham |
Professor | Manthos Delis | University of Surrey |
Professor | Sanjit Dhami | University of Leicester |
Professor | Huw David Dixon | Cardiff Business School |
Professor | Martin Ellison | University of Oxford |
Professor | Christian-Oliver Ewald | University of Glasgow |
Professor | J. Doyne Farmer | University of Oxford |
Professor | John Fender | University of Birmingham |
Professor | Martin Fransman | University of Edinburgh |
Professor | Aditya Goenka | University of Birmingham |
Professor | Ian Goldin | University of Oxford |
Professor | Monica Giulietti | University of Loughborough |
Professor | Ed Hopkins | University of Edinburgh |
Professor | Christos Ioannidis | University of Bath |
Professor | Peter Jackson | University of Leicester |
Professor | Beata Javorcik | University of Oxford |
Professor | Geraint Johnes | Lancaster University |
Professor | Uma Kambhampati | University of Reading |
Professor | Tatiana Kirsanova | University of Glasgow |
Professor | Paul Levine | University of Surrey |
Professor | Ben Lockwood | University of Warwick |
Professor | Steve Machin | University College London |
Professor | James Malley | University of Glasgow |
Professor | Christopher Martin | University of Bath |
Professor | Mariana Mazzucato | University of Sussex |
Professor | Sandra McNally | University of Surrey |
Professor | Costas Milas | University of Liverpool |
Professor | Giordano Mion | University of Sussex |
Professor | Hassan Molana | University of Dundee |
Professor | Catia Montagna | Aberdeen Business School |
Professor | John Muellbauer | University of Oxford |
Professor | Anastasia Nesvetailova | City University of London |
Professor | Ozlem Onaran | University of Greenwich |
Professor | Gulcin Ozkan | University of York |
Professor | Keith Pilbeam | City University of London |
Professor | Graham Room | University of Bath |
Professor | JMC Santos-Silva | University of Surrey |
Professor | Stuart Sayer | University of Edinburgh |
Professor Emeritus | Peter Sinclair | University of Birmingham |
Professor | Frank Skinner | Brunel University |
Professor | Peter Smith | University of York |
Professor | Chris Starmer | University of Nottingham |
Professor | Peter Spencer | University of York |
Professor | Jakub Steiner | University of Edinburgh |
Professor | Margaret Stevens | University of Oxford |
Professor Emeritus | Frances Stewart | University of Oxford |
Professor | Alan Sutherland | University of St Andrews |
Professor | Robert Taylor | University of Essex |
Professor | Christoph Thoenissen | The University of Sheffield |
Professor | Ian Tonks | University of Bath |
Professor | Jan Toporowski | University of London |
Professor | Mehmet Ugur | University of Greenwich |
Professor | Leighton Vaughan Williams | Nottingham Trent University |
Professor | John Wilson | University of St Andrews |
Professor | David Vines | University of Oxford |
Professor Emeritus | John Weeks | University of London |
Professor | Robert Witt | University of Surrey |
Professor | Simon Wren-Lewis | University of Oxford |
Professor | Tony Yates | University of Birmingham |
Professor | Daniel Zizzo | Newcastle University |
Associate Professor | Simon Appleton | University of Nottingham |
Associate Professor | Christopher Bowdler | University of Oxford |
Associate Professor | Alesandra Ferrari | University of Reading |
Associate Professor | Andrea Ferrero | University of Oxford |
Associate Professor | Daniela Gabor | UWE Bristol |
Associate Professor | Christos Kolympiris | University of Bath |
Associate Professor | Alexander Mihailov | University of Reading |
Associate Professor | Thijs van Rens | University of Warwick |
Assistant Professor | Ralf Martin | Imperial College |
Dr | Federica Alberti | University of Portsmouth |
Mr | Colin Ash | University of Reading |
Dr. | Peter Backus | University of Manchester |
Dr. | Abigail Barr | University of Nottingham |
Dr | Jo Blanden | University of Surrey |
Dr | Peter Bloom | The Open University |
Dr. | Yang Bo | Swansea University |
Dr | Gianna Boero | University of Warwick |
Dr. | Sean Brocklebank | University of Edinburgh |
Dr. | Cristiano Cantore | University of Surrey |
Dr. | Joanna Clifton-Sprigg | University of Bath |
Dr. | Agelos Delis | Aston University |
Dr. | Matt Dickson | University of Bath |
Dr. | Marco Ercolani | University of Birmingham |
Dr. | Jan Fidrmuc | Brunel University |
Dr. | Maria Garcia-Alonso | University of Kent |
Dr. | Chryssi Giannitsarou | University of Cambridge |
Dr. | Sara Gorgoni | University of Greenwich |
Dr. | Liam Graham | University College London |
Dr | Adelina Gschwandtner | University of Kent |
Dr. | Ian Gregory-Smith | University of Sheffield |
Dr. | Jan Grobovsek | University of Edinburgh |
Dr. | Tom Holden | University of Surrey |
Dr. | Peter Holmes | University of Sussex |
Dr. | John Houston | Glasgow Caledonian University |
Dr. | Ethan Ilzetzki | London School of Economics |
Dr. | Adi Imsirovic | University of Surrey |
Dr. | Gregory James | Loughborough University |
Dr | Sarah Jewell | University of Reading |
Dr. | Chris Jones | Aston Business School |
Dr. | Alexander Karalis Isaac | University of Warwick |
Dr. | Tatiana Kornienko | University of Edinburgh |
Dr. | Sarolta Laczó | University of Surrey |
Dr. | Neil Lancastle | De Montfort University |
Dr. | Joao Madeira | University of York |
Dr. | Sara Maioli | Newcastle University |
Dr. | Alexander Mandilaras | University of Surrey |
Mr. | John Marsh | Nottingham Trent University |
Dr. | Frederico Martellosio | University of Surrey |
Dr. | Jolian McHardy | University of Sheffield |
Dr. | Antonio Mele | University of Surrey |
Dr. | Andrew Mell | University of Oxford |
Dr. | Damon Morris | University of Sheffield |
Dr. | David Morris | Aston Business School |
Dr. | Nicholas Myers | University of Edinburgh |
Dr. | Antonio Navas | University of Sheffield |
Dr. | Kyriakos Neanidis | University of Manchester |
Dr. | Juan Paez-Farrell | University of Sheffield |
Dr | Stefania Paredes Fuentes | University of Warwick |
Dr. | Jonathan Perraton | University of Sheffield |
Dr. | Andrew Pickering | University of York |
Dr. | Dimitra Politi | University of Edinburgh |
Dr. and Deputy Head of Dept. | Peter Postl | University of Bath |
Dr. | J. James Reade | University of Reading |
Dr. | Pontus Rendahl | University of Cambridge |
Dr. (Assoc Dean Research) | Patricia Rice | University of Oxford |
Dr. | Mary Robertson | University of Greenwich |
Dr. | Raffaele Rossi | University of Manchester |
Dr. | Tomás Rotta | University of Greenwich |
Dr. | Jeff Round | University of Bristol |
Dr. | Colin Rowat | University of Birmingham |
Dr. | Ozge Senay | University of St. Andrews |
Dr. | Kavita Sirichand | Loughborough University |
Dr | Samue Smithers | Department of Work and Pensions |
Dr. | Christian Soegaard | University of Warwick |
Dr. | Michalis Stamatogiannis | University of Liverpool |
Dr. | Radek Stefanski | University of St. Andrews |
Dr. | Frank Strobel | University of Birmingham |
Dr | Roman Sustek | Queen Mary, University of London |
Dr | Nicole Tabasso | University of Surrey |
Dr. | William Tayler | Lancaster University |
Dr. | Emma Tominey | University of York |
Dr | Gianpiero Torrisi | University of Portsmouth |
Dr. | Flavio Toxvaerd | University of Cambridge |
Dr. | Kei Tsutsui | University of Bath |
Dr. | Sam Wills | University of Oxford |
Dr. | Robert Zymek | University of Edinburgh |
Professor | Nicholas Bloom | Stanford University |
Professor | Philippe Aghion | Harvard University |